上海市“十四五”期间卫生总费用预测研究——基于灰色GM(1,1)模型

Prediction of Total Health Expenditure in Shanghai during the 14th Five Year Plan Period—Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

目的:分析2012~2018年上海市的卫生总费用及其构成情况,合理预测“十四五”期间上海市卫生总费用及构成的变化趋势。方法:选取2012~2018年上海地区卫生总费用相关数据,科学构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型。结果:2012~2018年,上海市卫生总费用从1092.35亿元增长到2301.60亿元,人均卫生支出已达9495.89元;政府和个人卫生支出占比分别从21.3%、19.5%增加到22.07%、20.3%,社会卫生支出占比从59.2%降低到57.63%。“十四五”期间,上海市卫生总费用呈现逐年上涨趋势,政府卫生支出占比增高,社会和个人卫生支出占比逐年降低。结论:上海市还需继续探索建设更加合理的医疗卫生政策,科学分配卫生支出,拓宽卫生筹资渠道,增强人民的获得感。

Objective: To analyze the total health expenditure and its composition in Shanghai from 2012 to 2018, and reasonably predict the change trend of the total health expenditure and composition in Shanghai during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Methods: The relevant data of total health expenditure in Shanghai from 2012 to 2018 were selected to scientifically construct the grey GM(1,1) prediction model. Results: From 2012 to 2018, the total health expenditure in Shanghai increased from 109.235 billion yuan to 230.160 billion yuan, and the per capita health expenditure reached 9495.89 yuan;the proportion of government and personal health expenditure increased from 21.3% and 19.5% to 22.07% and 20.3% respectively, and the proportion of social health expenditure decreased from 59.2% to 57.63%. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the total health expenditure in Shanghai showed an upward trend year by year, the proportion of government health expenditure increased, and the proportion of social and personal health expenditure decreased year by year. Conclusion: Shanghai needs to continue to explore and build more reasonable medical and health policies, scientifically allocate health expenditure, broaden health financing channels and enhance people’s sense of access.