基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)安徽省城镇职工基本养老保险参保人数预测

A Forecasting of the Number of Urban Employees Participating in Basic Endowment Insurance in Anhui Province Based on GM(1,1) Gray System

基于安徽省2010~2020十年间城镇职工基本养老保险参保人数相关数据,通过建立GM(1,1)模型对参保人数进行预测,探讨未来参保人数;通过模型预测发现日后几年城镇职工基本养老保险参保人数仍持续增长,对此提出建议进一步完善养老保障体系,对扩大养老保障覆盖面,建立可持续、多层次的社会保障体系提供借鉴意义。

Based on the relevant data of the number of urban employees participating in the basic endowment insurance in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2020, the number of the insured was predicted by the GM(1,1) model, and the number of the insured in the future was discussed. Through the prediction of the model, it is found that the number of urban employees participating in the basic endowment insurance will continue to increase in the next few years. In this regard, suggestions are put forward to further improve the endowment security system, providing reference for expanding the coverage of the endowment security and establishing a sustainable and multi-level social security system.