“河长制”在长三角地区的实施效果研究——基于DID模型的实证分析

Research on the Implementation Effect of “River Chief Policy” in the Yangtze River Delta—An Empirical Analysis Based on DID Model

长江三角洲位于长江的下游地区,面临着严峻的水生态环境问题。河长制作为河湖治理领域的一项创新制度,自实施以来取得了一定的成效,但学界对其也存在一些争议。利用2007~2018年长三角地区的15个主要城市的统计数据及该区域17个主要的国控断面监测点报告的水污染数据,使用双重差分法(DID)识别河长制的水污染治理效应。研究发现:河长制的实施增加了河湖水的酸碱程度,未显著地降低水中的化学需氧量和氨氮,表明其未有效改善水污染问题。可能揭示了地方政府治标不治本的粉饰性治污行为,以及政策效果发挥具有一定的滞后性及具体水污染问题的特殊性。

Located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Yangtze River Delta is facing severe water ecological environment problems. As an innovative system in the field of river and lake management, the river director system has achieved certain results since its implementation, but there are also some disputes in the academic circles. Using the statistical data of 15 major cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2007 to 2018 and the water pollution data reported by 17 major state-controlled section monitoring points in the region, the double difference method (DID) is used to identify the water pollution control effect of the river length system. The study found that the implementation of the river head system increased the acid-base degree of river and lake water, but did not significantly reduce the chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen in the water, indicating that it did not effectively improve the problem of water pollution. It may reveal the whitewash pollution control behavior of local governments, the lag of policy effect and the particularity of specific water pollution problems.