基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的云南省卫生总费用预测

Prediction of Total Expenditure on Health in Yunnan Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

根据2009~2019年共十一年的云南省卫生总费用数据,基于灰色系统理论,建立云南省卫生总费用的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。分析云南省卫生总费用筹资水平与筹资结构及其占GDP比重现状。预测2020~2026年共七年云南省卫生总费用及其筹资结构,预测结果总体呈现出卫生总费用及其占GDP比重逐年增加,政府、个人卫生支出比例不断降低,社会卫生支出比例不断提高的趋势。为区域卫生健康费用管理、筹资水平与结构优化提供科学依据,对云南省卫生健康事业的发展具有重要意义。

Based on the data of the total health expenditure in Yunnan province from 2009 to 2019, a GM(1,1) grey prediction model of the total health expenditure in Yunnan province was established based on the grey system theory. To analyze the financing level and structure of total health expenditure in Yunnan province and its proportion to GDP. The total health expenditure and its financing structure of Yunnan province from 2020 to 2026 are predicted. The forecast results show that the total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP increase year by year, the proportion of government and in-dividual health expenditure decreases continuously, and the proportion of social health expendi-ture increases continuously. It is of great significance for the development of health cause in Yunnan province to provide scientific basis for regional health cost management, financing level and struc-ture optimization.