河南省驻马店市人口老龄化分析预测——基于灰色理论模型

Analysis and Prediction of Population Aging in Zhumadian City, Henan Province —Based on Grey Theory Model

随着经济的发展和科技的进步,我国人口的平均预期寿命正在逐渐上升,但是人口老龄化程度也越来越严重。如果不采取有效的措施进行应对,人口老龄化会对我国的经济社会发展产生阻碍,更有可能引发一系列的社会问题。文章从人口预测的角度,通过运用GM(1,1)模型分析了河南省驻马店市65岁以上老年人口数量的变化规律,并且建立合适的人口预测模型,预测了2021~2025年驻马店市的65岁以上老年人口数量,分别为115.6万人,121.8万人,128.2万人,135万人,142.2万人。最后结合GM(1,1)预测模型的分析结果,提出了相关建议。

With the development of economy and the progress of science and technology, the average life ex-pectancy of China’s population is gradually rising, but the degree of population aging is becoming more and more serious. If we do not take effective measures to deal with it, the aging population will hinder China’s economic and social development and is more likely to cause a series of social problems. From the perspective of population prediction, this paper analyzes the change law of the population over 65 years old in Zhumadian City, Henan Province by using GM(1,1) model, and es-tablishes an appropriate population prediction model to predict the population over 65 years old in Zhumadian City from 2021 to 2025, which is divided into 1,156,000, 1,218,000, 1,282,000, 1,350,000 and 1,422,000. Finally, combined with the analysis results of GM(1,1) prediction model, relevant suggestions are put forward.