基本养老保险对居民生育意愿影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Basic Endowment Insurance on Residents’ Fertility Willingness

育龄女性的生育意愿直接影响女性的生育行为。本文使用中国综合社会调查2017年CGSS数据,从生育意愿数量、生育意愿性别这两个层面分析我国基本养老保险对居民生育意愿的影响。将“是否参与养老保险”作为解释变量,将“生育意愿数量”、“生育意愿性别”作为被解释变量,建立了Logit模型检验基本养老保险对生育意愿数量、生育意愿性别的影响。研究结果表明:基本养老保险对生育意愿呈显著负向影响,购买基本养老保险不仅降低了居民选择生育的概率,同时还降低了居民生育子女的意愿和数量,且存在性别差异,参加基本养老保险的居民更偏向于生育女孩。此外,从受教育程度以及不同收入群体来检验养老保险对生育意愿的影响,发现受教育程度较高、收入较高、购买养老保险的居民选择生育的概率和数量更低。根据实证研究结果,本文从养老保险制度方面,提出了将养老保险制度与优生优育相结合,激励高学历群体再生育,树立健康的生育观念等政策;从社会经济方面,提出了提高区域经济发展水平,促进城乡一体化政策,提高生育意愿和生育率。

The fertility willingness of women of childbearing age directly affects women’s fertility behavior. Using the CGSS data of China comprehensive social survey in 2017, this paper analyzes the impact of China’s basic endowment insurance on residents’ fertility willingness from two aspects: the number of fertility willingness and the gender of fertility willingness. Taking “whether to participate in basic endowment insurance” as the explanatory variable and “number of fertility willingness” and “gen-der of fertility willingness” as the explanatory variables, a logit model is established to test the im-pact of basic endowment insurance on the number of fertility willingness and gender of fertility willingness. The results show that the basic endowment insurance has a significant negative impact on the fertility willingness. Purchasing basic endowment insurance not only reduces the probability of residents choosing to have children, but also reduces the willingness and number of residents to have children, and there are gender differences. Residents participating in basic endowment in-surance prefer to have girls. In addition, from the education level and different income groups to test the impact of endowment insurance on fertility willingness, it is found that residents with higher education level, higher income and purchasing endowment insurance have lower probability and quantity of choosing fertility. According to the empirical research results, this paper puts for-ward some policies from the aspect of the endowment insurance system, such as combining the en-dowment insurance system with eugenics, encouraging highly educated groups to have children again, and establishing a healthy concept of fertility;In terms of social economy, it puts forward policies to improve the level of regional economic development, promote urban-rural integration, and fertility willingness and fertility rate.