基于GM(1,1)模型的山西省人均可支配收入现状分析及预测

Analysis and Forecast of per Capita Disposable Income in Shanxi Province Based on GM(1,1) Model

一个地区的人均可支配收入不仅代表了当地居民的生活水平,也代表了这个地区的经济发展状况。2021年山西省GDP在全国的排名为第二十名,人均可支配收入绝对额在全国31个省市的排名为第二十二名,文章基于山西省统计局的2021统计年鉴数据,利用GM(1,1)模型分析了山西省2011~2020年的人均可支配收入状况,预测山西省2021~2025年的人均可支配收入为2.7452万元,2.9568万元,3.1848万元,3.4304万元,3.6949万元。通过以上分析结果,最后给出了一些建议,希望可以为山西省相关政府部门在以后制定经济和社会发展方面的政策提供些许的参考。

The per capita disposable income of a region not only represents the living standard of local resi-dents, but also represents the economic development of the region. In 2021, the GDP of Shanxi Province will be ranked 20th in the country, but the absolute amount of per capita disposable in-come will be ranked 22nd among 31 provinces and cities across the country. Using the GM(1,1) model to analyze the per capita disposable income of Shanxi Province from 2011 to 2020, it is pre-dicted that the per capita disposable income of Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2025 will be 27,452, 29,568, 31,848, and 34,304, 36,949 yuan. Through the above analysis results, some suggestions are finally given, hoping to provide some reference for the relevant government departments of Shanxi Province in the future economic and social development policies.