基于GM(1,1)模型对湖北省公共卫生体系队伍建设情况的预测研究

Research on the Prediction of Team Construction of Public Health System in Hubei Province Based on GM(1,1) Model

自2020年以来,我国先后经历了多轮新冠肺炎疫情的本土大暴发,对我国的公共卫生体系以及其应急管理能力构成了一次又一次的挑战。因此,了解一个地方的公共卫生体系的建设水平并预测未来的发展势头对于当前构建疫情常态化防控体系至关重要。本文选取了我国打响新冠肺炎疫情防控第一战的湖北省作为研究对象,基于湖北省统计局公布的2011~2020统计年鉴,对湖北省卫生工作人员数量进行统计,并利用(GM(1,1))灰色预测模型的三种方式对未来5年数据进行预测,来得出未来几年湖北省卫生人员队伍建设趋势。根据预测结果显示,在未来的5年内,湖北省的卫生工作人员队伍将继续不断壮大且执业医师在其中的占比将越来越高。本文基于这些结果,提出了完善公共卫生人员的保障机制,加大公共卫生人才培养力度等五个建议。

Since 2020, China has experienced multiple domestic outbreaks of COVID-19, which have posed re-peated challenges to the country’s public health system and its emergency management capacity. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the construction level of a local public health system and pre-dict its future development momentum for the current construction of a regular epidemic preven-tion and control system. In this paper, Hubei Province, which started the first battle for the preven-tion and control of COVID-19 in China, was selected as the research object. Based on the statistical yearbook from 2011 to 2020 released by Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the number of health workers in Hubei Province was counted, and the data for the next five years were predicted by using three methods of (GM(1,1)) grey prediction model. To get the next few years of Hubei Province health personnel team construction trend. According to the forecast results, in the next five years, the health workforce in Hubei Province will continue to grow and the proportion of li-censed physicians will be higher and higher. Based on these results, five suggestions are put for-ward, such as improving the security mechanism of public health personnel and strengthening the training of public health personnel.