天津市进出口贸易总额宏观经济影响因素的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting the Total Import and Export Trade in Tianjin

改革开放以来,我国经济有了实质性的增长。进出口贸易是我国经济总量增长的重要组成部分,也是拉动我国国民经济发展的重要力量。本文主要以天津市1993年~2020年的相关统计数据为样本,借助线性回归模型分析影响天津市进出口贸易总额的宏观经济因素,寻找各影响因素之间的定量关系,对数据进行定量分析,对模型进行检验和修正。实证分析结果表明:影响天津市对外贸易进出口总额的主要宏观经济因素是口岸进出口总额和居民消费价格指数,最后根据分析结果提出相应的对策和建议。

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has experienced substantial growth. Import and export trade is an important part of China’s total economic growth, and also an important force driving the development of China’s national economy. This paper mainly takes the relevant statis-tical data of Tianjin from 1993 to 2020 as samples, analyzes the macroeconomic factors affecting the total import and export trade of Tianjin with the help of linear regression model, looks for the quantitative relationship between the influencing factors, makes quantitative analysis on the data, tests and modifies the model. The empirical analysis results show that the main macroeconomic factors affecting the total amount of Tianjin’s foreign trade are the total amount of port imports and exports and consumer price index. Finally, according to the analysis results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.