基于聚类分析模型的重庆区域经济差异性分析

Analysis of Chongqing’s Regional Economic Differences Based on Cluster Analysis Model

我国各地区在经济发展过程中,经济发展不协调。适当的区域经济差异能够使资源得到合理的优化和配置,促进经济的发展。然而,区域经济差异过大,地区的基尼系数会提高,容易造成社会矛盾,不利于和谐社会的建设。本文以重庆市38个区(县)所辖范围为研究对象,首先,从影响区域经济发展的众多因素中,基于不同的变量选择方法构建不同的指标体系,通过Lasso变量选择法、逐步回归法以及自适应Lasso这三种变量选择方法的比较,发现Lasso变量选择法简化模型的同时,预测精度也更好,故将其应用在重庆区域经济发展研究中。其次,利用主成分分析法和聚类分析对区域的经济差异进行了深入研究,结果表明,以涪陵为界限,重庆市东西部经济发展呈现两极分化。最后,本文基于重庆市目前的经济发展状况,给出了一些区域经济协调发展的建议和对策。

In the process of economic development, the economic development of various regions in China is not coordinated. Appropriate regional economic differences can make resources get reasonable op-timization and allocation, and promote economic development. However, if the regional economic difference is too large, the regional Gini coefficient will increase, which is easy to cause social con-tradictions and is not conducive to the construction of a harmonious society. In this paper, 38 dis-tricts (counties) of Chongqing municipality are taken as the research object. Firstly, from the many factors affecting regional economic development, different index systems are constructed based on different variable selection methods. Through the comparison of three variable selection methods, Lasso variable selection method, stepwise regression method and adaptive Lasso, it is found that the Lasso variable selection method simplifies the model and has better prediction accuracy at the same time, so it is applied in the study of Chongqing regional economic development. Secondly, principal component analysis and cluster analysis are used to study the regional economic differ-ences. The results show that with Fuling as the boundary, the economic development of the east and the west of Chongqing presents polarization. Finally, based on the current economic development of Chongqing, this paper gives some suggestions and countermeasures for the coordinated develop-ment of regional economy.