上海市邮轮经济与城市经济耦合发展研究

Study on the Coupling Development of Cruise Economy and Urban Economy in Shanghai

在疫情常态化的“十四五”期间和双循环新发展格局背景下,上海市作为我国邮轮经济中心,将迎来邮轮经济健康发展、创新发展的关键阶段。本文在构建上海市邮轮经济与城市经济评价指标的基础上,通过熵值法计算邮轮经济与城市经济两个系统的综合指数,运用耦合发展模型来研究两者耦合协调关系。研究发现,上海市邮轮经济与城市经济发展的耦合协调度较低,发展水平仍然存在不同步的问题。但除2018年出现下降外,自2011年以来两大经济系统协调度总体呈持续上升趋势;其中,两者的耦合协调度在2014年之前均处于中度失调水平,自2015年以来不断提高至轻度失调水平。

During the “14th Five-year Plan” of the epidemic and under the background of the new double-cycle development pattern, Shanghai, as China’s cruise economy center, will usher in a key stage of the healthy and innovative development of the cruise economy. On the basis of constructing the evalua-tion index of Shanghai cruise economy and city economy, this paper calculates the comprehensive index of cruise economy and city economy by means of entropy method, and studies the coupling and coordination relationship between the two systems by using the coupling development model. It is found that the coupling coordination degree between Shanghai cruise economy and urban eco-nomic development is low, and the development level is still out of sync. However, except for a de-cline in 2018, the overall coordination degree of the two economic systems has been on the rise since 2011. Among them, the coupling coordination degree of the two was at the moderate level be-fore 2014, and increased to the mild level since 2015.