基于ISM方法的适龄人口生育意愿影响因素研究

Study on the Factors Influencing the Fertility Intention of Childbearing-Age Population Based on ISM Method

随着三孩政策的正式入法,生育率问题已经成为了党和国家高度关注的重大议题,然而适龄人口生育意愿并不高涨,当前适龄人口的总和生育率仅为1.3,远低于正常人口更替的生育率水平。本文运用文献研究法提取了9个影响适龄人口生育意愿的相关因素,并结合ISM方法分析各影响因素之间的相互关系,形成多层次结构图。结果表明,生育观念、工资收入水平为表层直接因素;育儿成本、家庭照护能力、女性职业发展、生育福利政策支持为中层间接因素;受教育程度、计划生育政策、外部经济环境发展为深层根本因素。

With the formal entry of the three child policy into the law, the fertility problem has become a ma-jor issue of great concern to the Party and the country. However, the childbearing desire of the childbearing-age population is not high. The current total fertility rate of the childbearing-age pop-ulation is only 1.3, far below the fertility level of normal population replacement. In this paper, nine relevant factors affecting the fertility intention of the childbearing-age population were extracted by literature research, and the relationship between the influencing factors was analyzed with ISM method to form a multi-level structure chart. The results showed that the concept of childbearing and the level of wage income were the direct factors on the surface;child care cost, family care abil-ity, career development of women, support of reproductive welfare policy are the middle-level in-direct factors;education level, family planning policy, and external economic environment devel-opment are the deep-level fundamental factors.