工作还是休闲:基于老年人预期寿命的影响研究

Work or Leisure: An Impact Study Based on the Life Expectancy of the Elderly

背景:随着经济的快速发展,中国人口老龄化问题日益严重。中国越来越重视健康问题,“健康中国”战略成为当务之急。退休年龄对预期寿命具有重要意义。但在以往的研究中,专家学者更多关注的是预期寿命对退休年龄的影响以及退休年龄对健康的影响,而对退休年龄对预期寿命的影响却没有给予足够的重视。人的一生是有限的。到了退休年龄,个人是选择不休还是选择休闲?方法:对2019年21个OECD成员国数据进行多元线性回归分析,因变量为预期寿命,自变量为退休年龄、人均医疗支出和人均GDP。该研究的重点是探索预期寿命是否受退休年龄的影响。结果:退休年龄、人均医疗支出和人均GDP都对预期寿命有积极影响。退休年龄、人均医疗费用和人均GDP越高,预期寿命越长。其中,退休年龄和人均卫生支出对预期寿命有显著影响,预期寿命受退休年龄影响最大,但同年人均GDP对预期寿命没有显著影响。结论:本研究结果证明退休年龄是影响预期寿命的重要因素。人均预期寿命并不是影响预期寿命的最重要因素,一个国家的人均GDP也不是影响预期寿命的决定性因素。人们越晚退休,他们的寿命就越长。适度延迟退休对延长预期寿命有积极影响。

Background: With the rapid economic development, China’s population aging is becoming more and more serious. China is paying more and more attention to health issues, and “Healthy China” strat-egy has become a priority. Retirement age has great significance for life expectancy. But in previous studies, experts and scholars paid more attention to the impact of life expectancy on retirement age and the impact of retirement age on health, but they did not pay enough attention to the impact of retirement age on life expectancy. A person’s lifetime is limited. When he reaches the retirement age, is it the best choice for an individual to choose to retire without taking a break or to choose lei-sure? Methods: We conducted multiple linear regression analysis on the data of 21 OECD member countries in 2019. We set the dependent variable as life expectancy, and set the independent vari-ables as retirement age, per capita medical expenditure and per capita GDP. The study focuses on exploring whether life expectancy is affected by retirement age. Results: Retirement age, per capita health expenditure, and per capita GDP all have a positive impact on life expectancy. The higher the retirement age, per capita health expenditure and per capita GDP are, the longer the life expectancy will be. Among them, retirement age and per capita health expenditure have a significant impact on life expectancy and life expectancy is most affected by retirement age, but in the same year, per capita GDP has no significant impact on life expectancy. Conclusions: The results of this study pro-vide evidence that retirement age is an important factor affecting life expectancy. Life expectancy per capita is not the most important factor affecting life expectancy, and the per capita GDP of a country is not a decisive factor affecting life expectancy. The later people enter retirement, the longer they will live. A moderate delay in retirement has a positive effect on the extension of life expectancy.