我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金运行效率及影响因素研究——基于DEA-Tobit模型

Research on the Operation Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Basic Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Workers in China—Based on DEA-Tobit Model

目的:把握我国城镇职工基本养老保险的运行效率及影响因素,有助于减轻我国城镇职工基本养老保险存在的财政风险负担,完善制度变革的方向,实现制度的有序转变。方法:利用DEA-Tobit模型,对我国31个省级行政区2015~2020年的城镇职工基本养老保险数据进行剖析并深入研究城镇职工基本养老保险基金运行效率及影响因素。结果:城镇职工基本养老保险效率受到社会保障负担、基金可持续能力、经济发展水平和老年抚养比的影响,城镇化水平和政府公共支出规模对城镇职工基本养老保险效率的影响不显著。结论:总体来看31个省市区的“职保”基金运行总体管理水平有待提升,其中静态效率仍处于较低水平,动态效率水平虽然较高,但纯技术效率较低。另外,我国“职保”基金存在地域差异,经济发达地区的规模报酬多为递增,经济欠发达地区的规模报酬多为递减有且仅有5个省份达到了DEA有效。同时“职保”基金的运行效率存在区域差异,东部地区的“职保”基金运行效率更优于中西部地区。基于此提出了因地制宜提升基金运行效率、提升基金可持续能力及实施渐进式延迟退休政策等。

Objective: Grasping the operational efficiency and influencing factors of the basic pension insurance for urban workers in China will help to reduce the financial risk burden of the basic pension insur-ance for urban workers in China, improve the direction of institutional reform, and realize the or-derly transformation of the system. Methods: Using the DEA-Tobit model, this paper analyzes the data of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in 31 provincial administrative regions of China from 2015 to 2020, and deeply studies the operation efficiency and influencing factors of basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers. Results: The efficiency of basic pension insurance for ur-ban workers is affected by social security burden, fund sustainability, economic development level and old-age dependency ratio. The level of urbanization and the scale of government public ex-penditure have no significant effect on the efficiency of basic pension insurance for urban workers. Conclusion: Overall, the overall management level of “job security” fund operation in 31 provinces and municipalities needs to be improved. Among them, the static efficiency is still at a low level. Although the dynamic efficiency level is high, the pure technical efficiency is low. In addition, there are regional differences in China’s “vocational insurance” funds. The returns to scale in economically developed regions are mostly increasing, and the returns to scale in economically underdeveloped regions are mostly decreasing and only five provinces have reached DEA effectiveness. At the same time, there are regional differences in the operating efficiency of “job security” fund. The operating efficiency of “job security” fund in the eastern region is better than that in the central and western regions. Based on this, it is proposed to improve the efficiency of the fund operation, enhance the sustainability of the fund and implement the progressive delayed retirement policy.