基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的幼童死亡率预测及分析研究

Prediction and Analysis of Infant Mortality Based on Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1)

目的:分析我国五岁以下儿童死亡率,通过构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测我国五岁以下儿童健康水平的未来发展趋势,并对预测结果进行分析,以期为政府及相关部门提供政策依据。方法:根据2021年《中国统计年鉴》相关数据,选取2016年~2020年五岁以下儿童死亡率作为指标,构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对我国2021~2025年五岁以下儿童死亡率的发展趋势进行预测分析。结果:根据各项指标所建立的灰色预测模型后验差比值均小于0.35、模型平均相对误差均小于20%,模型精度较高、拟合度较好,可用于短期预测;2020~2025年我国五岁以下儿童死亡率不断降低,分别为:6.923%、6.478%、6.062%、5.672%、5.308%。城乡五岁以下儿童死亡率差距仍然过大,2021~2025年城乡差距分别为4.485%、4.138%、3.818%、3.521%、3.246%。结论:政府及有关部门应做好幼童健康保障工作,终结可预防的儿童死亡,同时解决新出现的儿童健康重点问题,精准施策,降低幼童死亡率;推进全民健康覆盖工作,缩小城乡差距,解决城乡幼童保障工作不平等的问题;加快识别新型冠状病毒肺炎对幼儿形成的危害,做好预防与保护工作。

Objective: To analyze the mortality rate of children under five years of age in China, to predict the future development trend of the health level of children under five years of age in China by con-structing GM(1,1) gray prediction model, and to analyze the prediction results, in order to provide policy basis for the government and relevant departments. Methods: Based on the relevant data of the 2021 China Statistical Yearbook, the under-five mortality rate from 2016 to 2020 was selected as the indicator, and a GM(1,1) gray prediction model was constructed to predict and analyze the development trend of under-five mortality in China from 2021 to 2025. Results: The posterior error ratios of the gray prediction model established according to various indicators are less than 0.35, the average relative error of the model is less than 20%, and the model accuracy is high and the fit degree is good, which can be used for short-term prediction. From 2020 to 2025, China's under-five mortality rate will continue to decrease, respectively: 6.923%, 6.478%, 6.062%, 5.672%, and 5.308%, and the gap between urban and rural under-five mortality is still too large, and the gap between urban and rural areas from 2021 to 2025 is 4.485%, 4.138%, 3.818%, 3.521%, and 3.246%, respectively. Conclusion: The government and relevant departments should do a good job in ensuring the health of young children, ending preventable child deaths, solving emerging key child health problems, and implementing precise policies to reduce child mortality. Promote uni-versal health coverage, narrow the urban-rural gap, and address inequalities in safeguarding young children between urban and rural areas;Accelerate the identification of the harm caused by novel coronavirus pneumonia to young children, and do a good job in prevention and protection.