摘要
科学地预测传染病的发展规律对疫情防控至关重要。本文构建了一类分阶段带有潜伏期和隔离仓室的SEIQDR动力学模型,且潜伏者也具有传染性。利用最小二乘算法进行参数估计,并进行数据拟合,结果表明SEIQDR模型预测结果与真实数据比较吻合,平均误差率3.44%,可以很好地描述疫情的传播规律,分阶段预测效果更好。
Scientific prediction of the development law of infectious diseases is very important for epidemic prevention and control. In this paper, a dynamic model of SEIQDR with incubation period and isola-tion chamber is constructed, and the latent person is also infectious. The least square algorithm was used to estimate the parameters and fit the data. The results showed that the prediction results of SEIQDR model were in good agreement with the real data, with an average error rate of 3.44%. It could well describe the spread of the epidemic situation, and the staged prediction was better.
出处
《应用数学进展》
2023年第2期709-717,共9页
Advances in Applied Mathematics
