区域因素影响下的大学生就业情况定量分析及就业形势的预测模型的研究

The Quantitative Analysis and the Research on the Forecasting Model of the Employment Situation of College Students under the Influence of Regional Factors

新时代背景下,大学毕业生的数量不断增加,毕业生的就业问题成为了社会问题。区域发展等因素一定程度上导致了区域间资源分布不均,供求不匹配。进而影响了毕业生就业的选择。而区域因素影响毕业生就业的问题更值得分析,对以后的大学生就业数据,就业形势等能进行预测,会更好地帮助大学生清晰就业趋势,明白就业现状,同时为之后就业情况做出调整。在此篇论文研究中,首先运用层次分析法数学模型探究了区域因素以及就业情况的影响,可以直观地看到区域因素会明显地影响就业选择,同时也研究出了各区域因素的影响比例,之后运用时间序列模型和偏最小二乘回归模型对毕业生的就业形势和就业结构进行预测,清晰地预测到未来两年的就业率以及就业结构的关系,为大学生就业提供更全面的数据参考,提高就业率,增加大学生就业满意度。

Under the background of the new era, the number of college graduates is increasing, and the employment problem of graduates has become a social problem. To some extent, regional development and other factors lead to the uneven distribution of resources between regions and the mismatch between supply and demand. And then it affects the graduates’ choice of employment. The problem of regional factors affecting the employment of graduates is more worthy of analysis. The future employment data and employment situation of college students can be predicted, which will better help college students to clear the employment trend, understand the employment situation, and make adjustments for the employment situation in the future. In this paper, the mathematical model of analytic hierarchy Process (AHP) is firstly used to explore the influence of regional factors and employment situation. It can be intuitively seen that regional factors will obviously affect employment choice, and the influence proportion of each regional factor is also studied. After that, the time series model and partial least squares regression model are used to predict the employment situation and employment structure of graduates, clearly forecast the relationship between employment rate and employment structure in the next two years, provide more comprehensive data reference for college students’ employment, improve the employment rate and increase their employment satisfaction.