具有媒体播报和早期筛查的HPV传播模型动力学分析

Dynamic Analysis of a Kind of HPV Transmission Model Incorporating Media Impact and Early Screening

依据人乳头瘤病毒(Human papilloma virus,简称HPV)传播机理,本文构建了一类具有媒体播报和早期筛查的HPV传播动力学模型。计算了模型控制再生数,证明了当时无病平衡点的全局稳定性,并进行了敏感性分析。结合南非HPV感染者与宫颈癌患者的数据进行了数值模拟,结果表明:提高媒体播报率与早期筛查率能明显减少HPV感染者的数量,从而有效预防和控制HPV传播。Based on the transmission mechanism of Human papilloma virus (HPV), a kind of HPV transmission dynamic model incorporating media coverage and early screening is constructed. The control reproduction number is calculated, and then we prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium as . Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is carried out. According to the data of HPV infection and cervical cancer in South Africa, numerical simulations are performed, and the results show that improving the media coverage rate and early screening rate can significantly reduce the number of HPV infected people, therefore effectively prevent and control HPV transmission.