基于流行病毒传播的城市韧性评估及动态预测

Evaluation and Dynamic Forecasting of Urban Resilience Based on Epidemic Viruses Spreading

本文在韧性评估相关理论的基础上,基于流行病毒传播的SIR模型,构建突发公共卫生事件下的城市流行病毒传播韧性评估模型,从生态韧性、环境韧性、公共管理韧性3个方面进行研究,通过Pearson相关性分析、聚类分析以及综合评价法,对影响生态韧性、环境韧性以及公共管理韧性中的六个二级指标进行聚类以及权重赋值,比较二级指标对一级指标的影响力大小来判断影响城市预防流行病毒传播的因素有哪些。最后构建了疫苗接种率与患病率之间的非线性回归模型,探究疫苗接种率对患病率的影响模式,论证了提高易感人群的疫苗接种率可以有效降低人群当中患传染病的概率。实证研究表明,本文的城市韧性评估模型是有效可行的。Based on the theory of resilience evaluation and the SIR model of epidemic virus spreading, a model for evaluating urban epidemic virus resilience under public health emergencies has been developed, which focuses on three key aspects: ecological resilience, environmental resilience, and public management resilience. Pearson correlation analysis, cluster analysis, and a comprehensive evaluation method were employed to cluster and weight six secondary indexes affecting ecological resilience, environmental resilience, and public management resilience. These indexes were then compared to the influence of primary indexes to determine which factors affect the prevention of the spread of epidemic viruses in the city. A nonlinear regression model was constructed to investigate the influence of vaccination rate on disease rate. The results argue that an increase in the vaccination rate of susceptible individuals can effectively reduce the probability of infectious diseases among the population. Empirical studies have indicated the validity and feasibility of the evaluation model of resilience to prevent epidemic spreading presented in this paper.