蒙提霍尔问题决策的心理学研究综述

A Review of Psychological Research on Decision-Making of Monty Hall Problem

蒙提霍尔问题是一个十分反直觉的问题,人们在该问题上总是做出不理性的决策。因此,对蒙提霍尔问题进行系统的研究,找出引起人们在蒙提霍尔问题决策上出现谬误的原因,对于促进人们决策更加科学、更加理性具有一定意义。我们对最近发表的关于蒙提霍尔问题的文章进行了系统的回顾,探研人们为什么在解决蒙提霍尔问题中做出不理性的决策。通过对关于蒙提霍尔的一系列心理学实验的探研,我们总结了人在蒙提霍尔问题中做出非理性选择的可能原因,提升解决蒙提霍尔问题成绩的方法,以及蒙提霍尔问题的展望。

Monty Hall Problem is a very counter-intuitive problem. People always make irrational decisions on this problem. Therefore, a systematic study of the Monty Hall Problem and finding out the reasons for people’s mistakes in the decision-making of the Monty Hall Problem is of certain significance to promote people’s decision-making to be more scientific and rational. We systematically reviewed the recently published articles on the Monty Hall Problem to explore why people made irrational decisions in solving the Monty Hall Problem. Through a series of psychological experiments on Monty Hall, we summarized the possible reasons for people’s irrational choices in the Monty Hall Problem, the methods to improve the results of solving the Monty Hall Problem, and the prospect of the Monty Hall Problem.