老龄化对我国社会保障支出的影响

The Impact of Aging on China’s Social Security Expenditure

人口老龄化是当今中国面临的一大严峻的挑战。老龄化给我们的国家、社会和生活带来了很大的挑战,尤其是在社会保障支出方面带来了不小的压力,使我们不得不重视老龄化对社会保障支出的影响。本文收集了时间序列数据和分省市的面板数据以及选取了合适的指标,运用软件绘制我国分省市地图来描述老龄化程度的现状以及运用描述统计的方法分析我国老龄化率以及社会保障支出的发展过程及现状,发现两者均呈现不断上升的趋势;运用时间序列数据构建回归方程以及运用面板数据构建模型得出随着老龄化的不断加深,社会保障占GDP的比例不断增加,社会保障支出的金额也会不断的上升。最后根据分析结果对社会保障支出和人口老龄化提出建议。

The aging of the population is a serious challenge facing China today. The aging of the population has brought great challenges to our country, society and life, especially the pressure on social se-curity expenditures, so we have to pay attention to the impact of aging on social security expendi-tures. This paper collects time series data, panel data by province and city, and selects appropriate indicators. The software is used to draw a map of China’s provinces and cities to describe the cur-rent status of aging and use descriptive statistics to analyze the aging rate and social security ex-penditure. The development process and status quo, both of which are showing an increasing trend, the use of time series data to build regression equations and the use of panel data to build models show that with the aging of the society, the proportion of social security in GDP continues to increase, and the amount of expenditure in social security will continue to rise. Finally, based on the analysis results, suggestions are made for social security expenditure and population aging.