基于犹豫模糊集的养老模式选择决策研究

Research on Decision-Making Decision of Pension Model Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Set

为有效缓解人口老龄化带来的养老负担问题,提出基于改进前景理论的犹豫模糊多准则决策分析方法,并将其应用于养老模式选择的决策。首先,构建养老模式的评价指标体系,建立犹豫模糊评价矩阵。其次,考虑决策者的非理性行为,引入改进的前景理论,构建改进的前景决策矩阵。针对定权问题,建立综合考虑主、客观因素的优化模型。然后,利用改进的前景决策矩阵及准则权重,提出基于改进前景理论的犹豫模糊多准则决策方法。基于该方法研究养老模式的决策问题,为此类问题提供一种有效的分析方法,并通过算例对此类问题进行优化决策。

To effectively alleviate the burden of pensions brought about by the aging of the population, this paper provides an hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis method based on the improved prospect theory, and applies it to the decision of the choice of pension mode. First, we construct an evaluation index system for the old-age model and establish a hesitant fuzzy evaluation matrix. Secondly, based on the irrational behavior of decision makers, the improved prospect theory is introduced to construct an improved foreground decision matrix. For the problem of definite power, an optimization model that comprehensively considers the main and objective factors is established. Then, combined with the improved foreground decision matrix and criterion weights, a hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method based on improved foreground theory is proposed. Based on this method, the decision-making problem of the pension model is studied, and an effective analysis method is provided for such problems, and the optimization decision of such problems is made through examples.