中国人口老龄化的影响因素分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of Influencing Factors of Population Aging in China

本文收集1998~2020年我国0~14岁的人口数量、15~64岁的人口数量、人口出生率、人口死亡率、人均GDP、政府和社会卫生支出、城镇人口比重人口数据,进行人口老龄化的影响因素分析和预测。通过一元线性回归模型研究每一个变量对老龄化系数的贡献度,并建立老龄化比率的多元回归预测模型。研究发现0~14岁的人口数量和人口出生率对老龄化有显着负向影响,能减缓老龄化的进程;15~64岁的人口数量、人口死亡率、人均GDP、政府和社会卫生支出以及城镇人口比重对老龄化有显着正向影响,会加快老龄化的进程。

This paper collects data on the population aged 0~14, the population aged 15~64, the birth rate, the mortality rate, GDP, the government and social health expenditure, and the proportion of the urban population in China from 1998 to 2020, to analyze the influencing factors of population aging and forecast the population aging ratio in China. Using the simple regression model, this paper studies the contribution of each variable to the aging coefficient and establishes the multiple regression model to predict of aging ratio. It was found that the number of people aged 0~14 and the birth rate have a significant negative impact on aging, which can slow down the process of aging. The number of people aged 15~64, population mortality, GDP, government and social health expenditure, and the proportion of the urban population have a significant positive impact on aging, which will accelerate the process of aging.