基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的山东省城乡居民基本养老保险参保趋势预测

Based on GM(1,1) Grey Prediction Model, the Trend of Basic Pension Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents in Shandong Province Is Predicted

作为全国老龄化程度较为严重的省份,山东省多年来努力推行全民参保计划、扩大基本养老保险覆盖面,但随着人口老龄化的不断发展和待遇水平的逐年提高,这样的趋势或给地方财政带来压力,因此对参保人数进行前瞻预测、提出对策建议有利于地方政府提早做出应对。本文通过数据分析探究了,使用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型建立了山东省2022~2031年城乡居民基本养老保险参保人数的预测模型,并对山东省未来10年城乡居民基本养老保险参保人数变化趋势进行了预测,基于预测结果提出了落实全民参保、缓解压力的对策。

As a province with a serious degree of aging in the country, Shandong Province has been trying to implement the national insurance plan and expand the coverage of basic pension insurance for many years. However, with the continuous development of population aging and the increasing level of treatment year by year, such a trend may bring pressure to local finance. Forecasting the number of people and putting forward countermeasures and suggestions are conducive to local governments’ early response. Through data analysis, this paper uses GM(1,1) gray prediction model to establish a prediction model for the number of urban and rural residents participating in the basic endowment insurance in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2031, and predicts the change trend of the number of urban and rural residents participating in the basic endowment insurance in Shandong Province in the next 10 years. Based on the forecast results, the countermeasures of implementing universal insurance and relieving pressure are put forward.