博弈视角下的公共政策过程分析——以西安市户籍新政为例

Analysis of Public Policy Process from the Perspective of Game—Taking the New Deal of Household Registration in Xi’an as an Example

为解释公共政策过程中各方参与主体的行动逻辑,论文借助博弈论方法,以西安户籍新政为例,构建了“西安市政府–其它地市政府”及“西安市公安局–非西安户籍人口”两个博弈模型,描述了西安户籍新政的制定和执行过程,通过对成本收益的分析解释了各政策主体进行策略选择的本质原因。研究发现,西安市政府制定“户籍新政”的根本动力是谋求人才给城市未来发展带来的巨大收益,同时为抢占先机和获得更多人口资源,西安推行了“史上最宽松的户籍政策”;在西安市政府的大力推动下,西安市公安局积极执行户籍新政无疑会获得部门效益、上级嘉奖和未来收益;而外来人口衡量落户西安可以收获的既有收益和未来收益后,在西安市奖补政策的鼓励下,出于看好西安未来发展的前提,或将选择落户西安。

In order to explain the action logic of the participants in the process of public policy,with the help of game theory and taking the new household registration policy in Xi’an as an example,this paper constructs the game model of“Xi’an Municipal Government-other municipal governments”and“Xi’an Public Security Bureau-non-Xi’an household registration population”,describes the formulation and implementation process of the new household registration policy in Xi’an,and explains the essential reasons for the policy subjects to make strategic choices through cost-benefit analysis.The study finds that the fundamental motive force for Xi’an Municipal Government to formulate the new household registration policy is to seek the huge benefits brought by talents for the future development of the city.Under the vigorous promotion of the Xi’an municipal government,the Xi’an Public Security Bureau will undoubtedly gain departmental benefits,higher-level awards and future benefits by actively implementing the new household registration policy;after measuring the existing and future benefits of settled in Xi’an,the migrant population,encouraged by the reward and subsidy policy of Xi’an,will choose to settle in Xi'an for the sake of optimizing the future development of Xi’an.