江西省对外贸易与经济增长效应分析

Analysis of the Effect of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Jiangxi Province

对外贸易是经济增长衡量区域经济发展的一个重要指标,也是经济发展的一项内在要求。本文利用江西省1995~2018年数据,基于VAR模型对进口增长率、出口增长率和江西省GDP增长率进行实证分析。研究结果表明,三者具有长期均衡的关系,江西省经济增长对出口贸易和进口贸易均有促进作用,尤其对进口贸易的影响效果更明显。而进口贸易对经济增长的拉动作用会逐年减弱,出口贸易在长期内对经济增长作用则更显著。

Foreign trade is an important indicator of economic growth to measure regional economic development and an inherent requirement of economic development.Based on the VAR model,this paper empirically analyzes the import growth rate,export growth rate and Jiangxi provincial GDP growth rate by using the data of Jiangxi Province from 1995 to 2018.The results show that the three variables have a long-term equilibrium relationship.The economic growth of Jiangxi Province has a positive effect on both export trade and import trade,especially for import trade.The pulling effect of import trade on economic growth will be weakened year by year,and the effect of export trade on economic growth will be more significant in the long run.