摘要
土地利用动态变化模拟是研究全球变化的重要内容。本文以广州市花都区为例,基于2010年土地利用数据,利用FLUS模型在30 m ×30 m尺度下模拟预测2015年的土地利用状况,并与花都区2015年的土地利用现状数据进行精度验证,再通过马尔科夫法预测2050年花都区的土地利用结构与布局。结果表明,FLUS模型模拟结果的Kappa指数高达0.8869,总体精度为0.9132,FOM指数也符合标准水平,模型模拟精度高,模拟结果均具有较高的准确性和科学性,模拟结果可为区域国土空间规划提供有价值的参考。
China’s urbanization process is now in a rapid stage.New urbanization requires us to guide the rational expansion of urban land use,improve the efficiency of urban land use,promote the optimal allocation of land resources and the rational layout of urban space,and achieve regional coordinated and sustainable development.Taking Huadu District of Guangzhou City as an example,based on the 2010 land use status data,the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use status in 2015 at 30 m×30 m scale,and the reliability of land use status in Huadu District in 2015 was verified.The Markov method is used to predict the land use of Huadu District in 2025,and establish three scenarios of cultivated land protection,ecological protection and compound extension to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Huadu District.Results show that the Kappa index of the FLUS model is as high as 0.8869,the overall accuracy is 0.9132,the FOM index is also in line with the standard level,and the model simulation accuracy is high.The land use spatial layout under different scenarios is quite reasonable and scientific.The simulation results can provide a valuable reference for the national space planning.
出处
《社会科学前沿》
2019年第7期1327-1341,共15页
Advances in Social Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41001054)
教育部人文社会科学项目(18YJAZH063、19YJA630009、19YJAZH116)联合资助。
