居民通货膨胀预期和家庭资产负债结构——基于微观调查数据的研究

Household Inflation Expectations and Household Balance Sheet Structure—Research Based on Microscopic Survey Data

本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS) 2017年数据,使用工具变量方法,对居民通货膨胀预期和家庭资产负债结构的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明居民通货膨胀预期的上升显著地降低了家庭选择金融投资产品和金融信贷产品的概率。另外,通货膨胀预期对于不同产品的选择具有明显异质性,通货膨胀预期的上升提升了居民对债券、黄金、教育贷款和房产类产品的配置的概率。最后本文研究表明个体通货膨胀预期的上升会改变居民风险偏好、降低其乐观程度并提高了居民的预期利率,而这些最终影响到家庭的资产和负债选择。

Based on the data of China Household Financial Survey (CHFS) in 2017, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between residents’ inflation expectations and households’ asset-liability structure using the instrumental variable method. The results show that the rise of residents’ inflation expectations significantly reduces the probability of households choosing financial investment products and financial credit products. In addition, inflation expectations have obvious heterogeneity in the selection of different products. The rise of inflation expectations improves the probability of residents’ allocation of bonds, gold, education loans and real estate products. Finally, this paper shows that the rise of individual inflation expectation will change residents’ risk preference, reduce their optimism and increase residents’ expected interest rate, which will ultimately affect the choice of households’ assets and liabilities.