新古典现实主义视角下的过度防御心理研究——以斯普特尼克一号事件(1957~1958)为例

Research on Excessive Defense Psychology from the Perspective of Neoclassical Realism—Taking the Sputnik I Incident (1957~1958) as an Example

本文的研究问题是:在苏联第一颗人造卫星发射升空后,美国缘何在政策上陷入过度防御心理之中?综合新古典现实主义理论框架,列出的解释变量包括体系刺激(自变量),领导人认知(中介变量)以及过度防御心理的政策输出(因变量)。运用过程追踪法,对1957年~1958年的案例进行了分析,得出的结论是:由于处于两级结构之中,美国对于无政府状态下的国际体系中的权力分配的变化极为敏感,加之侦查与情报手段的相对匮乏导致领导人无法确切感知到真正的权力分配信号,影响权力知觉;并在战略文化、国内观众成本以及历史经验的作用下,做出了反应过度防御心理的战略决策。

The research question of this paper is: why did the United States fall into excessive defensive psychology in policy after the launch of the first man-made satellite of the Soviet Union? Based on the neoclassical realistic theoretical framework, the explanatory variables listed include system stimulation (independent variable), leader cognition (intermediary variable) and policy output of excessive defense psychology (dependent variable). Using the process tracking method, this paper analyzes the cases from 1957 to 1958. The conclusion is that because of its two-level structure, the United States is very sensitive to the changes of power distribution in the international system under the state of anarchy. What’s more, the USA lacked the resources of investigation and intelligence, which means the leaders can not accurately perceive the distribution signal of the real power, which affects the power perception;under the influence of strategic culture, domestic audience cost and historical experience, the leaders made a strategic decision to respond to excessive defense psychology.