浙江省金融发展与经济增长的关系研究——基于协整检验和向量误差修正模型

A Study on the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth of Zhejiang Province—Based on Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model

本文基于1978~2020年浙江省生产总值和金融指标统计资料,对相关变量进行协整检验并构造向量误差修正模型,以此得到浙江省金融发展与经济增长间的长期均衡关系以及短期影响关系。研究结果表明:从长远考虑,浙江省金融业发展虽然对生产总值具有正向的促进作用,但在短期内效果有限。基于此文章给出加大浙江省金融创新和资金优化,提升金融产业效率等启示。

Based on the GDP of Zhejiang Province from the year 1978 to 2020 and related financial index data, this paper conducts a cointegration test among variables, constructs a vector error correction model, and judges whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term impact relationship between financial development and economic growth. The research results show that from a long-term perspective, financial development of Zhejiang Province has a positive role in promoting GDP, but it has a limited role in the short term. This paper gives inspirations such as increasing financial innovation and capital optimization in Zhejiang Province, and improving the efficiency of the financial industry.