人口老龄化背景下年龄结构对家庭金融资产配置的影响——基于CHFS2017

Impact of Age Structure on Household Financial Asset Allocation in the Context of Population Ageing—Based on CHFS2017

伴随着人口老龄化的形势愈发严峻,中国的人口年龄结构也在逐渐发生改变。本文借助2017年中国家庭金融调查的数据,在人口老龄化背景下,通过Tobit模型和零膨胀泊松模型,回归分析了中国人口年龄结构对家庭金融资产配置的广度和深度的影响。研究发现,中国的家庭金融资产配置受到了年龄的影响。股票、风险资产占比和风险资产的持有数量与人口的年龄呈现倒“U”型关系,表现出生命周期性。60岁~70岁老年人占比较高的家庭会降低股票资产的配置而转向理财产品,定期存款等多种资产的配置,以实现风险分散化。而家庭中70岁以上老年人占比的上升会导致家庭无风险资产配置的增加,风险资产配置的下降。本文结论为进一步推动中国养老体系改革,促进积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的实施提供了理论支撑。

With the increasing trend of population aging, the age structure of China’s population is also changing. This paper draws on data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey, and uses Tobit and zero-inflated Poisson regressions to analyze the impact of age structure on the breadth and depth of household financial asset allocation in the context of aging. The study finds that Chinese household financial asset allocation is influenced by age structure, the proportion of equity assets and risky financial assets, and the number of risky financial asset classes has an inverted “U” shaped relationship with age, showing a life cycle. The households with a high proportion of older people aged 60~70 will reduce their asset allocation to equities and shift to a variety of assets such as financial products and time deposits to achieve risk diversification. An increase in the proportion of over 70s in households will lead to an increase in risk-free asset allocation and a decrease in risky asset allocation. The findings of this paper provide theoretical support to further promote the reform of China’s pension system and facilitate the implementation of the national strategy to actively cope with the ageing of the population.