收缩型城市的人口老龄化趋势及应对策略——以黑龙江省鹤岗市为例

Population Aging Trend and Coping Strategies of Shrinking Cities—Taking Hegang City, Heilongjiang Province as an Example

在快速城市化进程中,“收缩城市”正逐步成为城市规划领域研究的热点议题,城市的收缩与“人口问题”紧密相连。本文采用GM(1,1)模型预测鹤岗市的老龄化趋势,并分析鹤岗市人口老龄化的应对策略,以期为鹤岗市的新型城镇化发展谋求新思路。研究发现,鹤岗市老龄化人口在2023年将达到24万人,需要从鹤岗市的生育政策、退休制度以及经济产业结构方面调整。

In the process of rapid urbanization, “shrinking city” is gradually becoming a hot topic in the field of urban planning, and the contraction of cities is closely linked to the “population issue”. This paper adopts GM(1,1) model to predict the aging trend of Hegang city, and analyzes the coping strategies of Hegang city population aging, in order to seek new ideas for the new urbanization development of Hegang city. The study found that the aging population of Hegang city will reach 240,000 in 2023, which is required to be adjusted from the city’s birth policy, retirement system and economic and industrial structure.