西部陆海新通道对西部地区与东盟之间贸易的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of the New Land Sea Passage in the West on the Trade between the Western Region and ASEAN

合理的通道建设是有效开展区域间贸易的重要条件,研究通道建设对区域间贸易的影响对通道建设开展的合理化与高效化有着重要意义。2019年10月正式开启的西部陆海新通道建设正如火如荼开展中,而西部陆海新通道对西部地区与东盟之间的贸易产生了正向还是负向影响?本文基于2014年第一季度至2020年第四季度中国21个省市对东盟十国的季度贸易数据,利用双重差分模型(DID)分析西部陆海新通道的政策影响。研究发现:西部陆海新通道的开通对西部地区与东盟之间的贸易产生了显著的促进作用,且对于中心枢纽城市的促进作用更显著。本文从通道经济理论的视角出发,用DID方法实证检验了西部陆海新通道建设对西部地区与东盟之间贸易的影响,弥补了现有研究较少基于西部陆海新通道开展定量实证研究的空白,为西部陆海新通道的后续建设提供了实证证据及政策建议。

Reasonable channel construction is an important condition for the effective development of interregional trade. It is of great significance to study the impact of channel construction on interregional trade for the rationalization and efficiency of channel construction. The construction of the new western land sea channel, which was officially opened in October 2019, is in full swing. Does the new western land sea channel have a positive or negative impact on the trade between Western China and ASEAN? Based on the quarterly trade data of China’s 21 provinces to ten ASEAN countries from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2020, this paper uses the DID model to analyze the policy impact of the new western land sea channel. The results show that: the opening of the new land sea channel in the western region has a significant role in promoting the trade between the western region and ASEAN, especially for the central hub cities. From the perspective of channel economy theory, this paper empirically tests the impact of the construction of the new western land sea channel on the trade between the western region and ASEAN with DID method, which makes up for the lack of quantitative empirical research based on the new western land sea channel, and provides empirical evidence and policy suggestions for the follow-up construction of the new western land sea channel.