绿色金融对碳排放的影响研究——基于绿色技术创新的链式中介作用

A Study on the Impact of Green Finance on Carbon Emissions—Based on the Chain Intermediation of Green Technology Innovation

在“双碳”目标背景下,绿色金融作为一种能促进经济发展、抑制碳排放的金融工具应运而生。论文基于2009~2019年30组省级面板数据使用链式中介的方法对绿色金融的碳减排效果进行考察。结果表明:第一,在整体分析中绿色金融与碳排放水平存在显著的倒U型关系,在区域分析中,东部地区两者之间倒U型关系不显著,而中西部地区显著;第二,通过Bootstrap中介变量检验得到,绿色金融通过促进产业结构绿色化升级,进而减少碳排放,中介路径显著;第三,绿色金融通过促进绿色技术创新的进步,促进产业结构绿色化升级,进一步促进碳排放的减少,中介路径显著,且均无区域异质性。研究结论得出如下启示:第一,坚持走低碳经济发展道路,将“双碳”目标在绿色金融发展中深度贯彻落实;第二,考虑各地区经济发展水平不同的限制,各地区差异化实现“双碳”目标。

In the context of the “double carbon” target, green finance is a financial instrument that can pro-mote economic development and curb carbon emissions. The paper examines the effect of green finance on carbon emission reduction based on 30 provincial panel data from 2009 to 2019 using the method of chain intermediation. The results show that: first, there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between green finance and carbon emission levels in the overall analysis, and in the regional analysis, the inverted U-shaped relationship between the two is not significant in the eastern region, while it is significant in the central and western regions;second, it is obtained by Bootstrap mediating variable test that green finance reduces carbon emissions by promoting the greening and upgrading of industrial structure, and thus the mediating path is significant;third, green Thirdly, green finance promotes the progress of green technology innovation, promotes the upgrading of green industrial structure, and further promotes the reduction of carbon emissions, and the mediating path is significant, and there is no regional heterogeneity. The findings of the study lead to the following insights: first, we should adhere to the development path of low-carbon economy and implement the “double carbon” target in the development of green finance;second, we should consider the constraints of different levels of economic development in each region and realize the “double carbon” target differently in each region. Secondly, considering the different levels of economic development of each region, each region can achieve the “double carbon” target differently.