基于指数随机图模型的应急协作网络形成机制研究——以郑州“7.20”特大暴雨为例

Research on Formation Mechanism of Emergency Collaboration Network Based on Exponential Random Graph Model —Taking the “7.20” Heavy Rainstorm in Zhengzhou as an Example

为应对复杂多变的灾害情境下,所有行动者在一定的规则和机制下建立跨主体、跨层级和跨领域的应急协作网络,探讨其形成机制有助于深入理解行动者行为逻辑,从而优化网络。本文以郑州暴雨为实证研究对象,采用网络数据进行事件分析,基于指数随机图模型探究政府组织间、政府组织与非政府组织间关系和网络形成规则。研究发现,存在隶属关系的地方政府部门合作紧密,中介组织在政府与非政府组织联系中发挥重要作用。因此,在突发暴雨灾害应对过程中,应明确纵向和横向部门权责划分、发挥枢纽组织影响力,进一步发挥协作网络在应急管理中的优势。

In order to cope with the complex and changeable disaster situation, all actors establish a cross-subject, cross-level and cross-domain emergency collaboration network under certain rules and mechanisms. Exploring its formation mechanism is helpful to understand the behavior logic of actors in depth, so as to optimize the network. This paper takes Zhengzhou rainstorm as the empirical research object, uses network data for event analysis, and explores the relationship and network formation rules between government organizations, government organizations and non-governmental organizations based on the exponential random graph model. The study found that the local government departments with subordinate relations cooperate closely, and intermediary organizations play an important role in the connection between government and non-governmental organizations. Therefore, in the process of sudden rainstorm disaster response, it is necessary to clarify the division of powers and responsibilities between vertical and horizontal departments, give full play to the influence of hub organizations, and further give full play to the advantages of collaborative networks in emergency management.