1990~2019年中国40岁以上人群跌倒死亡趋势研究及年龄–时期–队列模型分析

Research on the Trend of Death Caused by the Fall of People over the Age of 40 in China from 1990 to 2019 and the Analysis of the Age-Period-Cohort Model

跌倒是我国非故意伤害致死最主要的原因。本研究利用全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease, GBD)数据,分析了我国近三十年老年人跌倒死亡率的长期趋势,并利用年龄–时期–队列模型探索了长期趋势下潜在的效应。研究结果发现,1990~2019年间,我国40岁以上人群跌倒死亡率整体呈现上升状态,这种增加几乎发生在所有年龄组。因此,有必要关注我国跌倒问题,并进行干预,例如提高公众防跌倒意识、建立相关支持性政策、改善公共基础设施等。

Falls are the leading cause of unintentional injury deaths in China. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, this study analysed the long-term trends in fall mortality among the elderly in China over the last three decades and explored the potential effects under the long-term trends using age-period-cohort models. The results of the study found that during the period 1990~2019, there was an overall increase in the mortality rate of falls among people over 40 years of age in China, and this increase occurred in almost all age groups. Therefore, there is a need to focus on the problem of falls in our country and to intervene, such as increasing public awareness of fall prevention, establishing relevant supportive policies, and improving public infrastructure.