中长期债务与居民消费的传导机制

The Transmission Mechanism between Medium and Long-Term Debt and Household Consumption

家庭部门的消费力决定了中国能否迈过中等收入陷阱成为发达国家。随着中国经济的增长,对出口的依赖逐步下降,而内需在经济中扮演的角色的重要性逐步上升。本文考察居民部门的中长期债务和居民部门消费的传导关系。研究显示,中长期债务对于居民消费呈现非线性的倒U型关系,在初期债务的增长促进了居民消费,但债务率的提高使得财富效应减弱,对消费的抑制作用增强。从机制上看,债务通过增强地方政府的财政实力,增进地方投资建设,传导到居民消费。因此,本文建议控制适度的债务规模,构建合理的地方财政制度。The consumption power of the household sector determines whether China can overcome the middle-income trap and become a developed country. With the growth of the Chinese economy, the dependence on exports has gradually decreased, while the importance of domestic demand in the economy has gradually increased. This article examines the transmission relationship between the medium and long-term debt of the resident sector and the consumption of the resident sector. Research shows that there is a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship between medium and long-term debt and household consumption. In the initial stage, the growth of debt promotes household consumption, but the increase in debt ratio weakens the wealth effect and enhances its inhibitory effect on consumption. From a mechanism perspective, debt enhances the financial strength of local governments, promotes local investment and construction, and is transmitted to residents’ consumption. Therefore, this article suggests controlling the moderate scale of debt and building a reasonable local fiscal system.