中国服务业发展与经济增长、农业发展与工业发展关系的实证研究

Empirical Research of the Relations among Economy Growth, Industrial and Agricultural Development and Service Industry Development

服务业发展对经济增长的关系一直是国内外学者研究的热点话题之一。本文采用我国1978年~2016年的时间序列数据,并运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、向量自回归VAR模型和脉冲响应函数等时间序列数据研究方法,实证分析了服务业发展对经济增长、农业发展与工业发展三者之间的关系。结果显示:1) 服务发展对经济增长的推动作用最强;2) 服务业发展对经济增长、工业发展与农业发展均有一定的促进作用;3) 服务业发展对经济发展的推动作用需要长期来实现。

The relationship between service industry development and economy growth has been a heated academic topic among scholars. Based on times series data from 1976 to 2016, this paper applies Johansen Co-integration Test, Granger Causality Test Vector Auto-Regressive Model and Impulse Response Function to analyze the relationship among economy growth, industrial and agricultural development, and service industry development. The result shows, 1) service development level has the most significant impact on promoting the economy development;2) service industry de-velopment has a certain impact on promoting industrial and agricultural development;3) it takes long time to realize the improvement of GDP from promotion in service industry.