石油对中国货物贸易出口的影响因素分析——基于误差修正模型

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Oil on China’s Exports of Goods Trade—Based on Error Correction Model

当今世界约90%的交通运输能量由石油产品驱动。从根本上讲,石油需求取决于全球经济的活力,特别是发展中经济体的扩张。新兴经济体强劲的经济增长会造成石油需求激增。一方面,石油价格会从贸易运输成本、企业生产成本与外汇市场直接影响货物贸易进出口额。另一方面,石油价格也从消费、投资和劳动力市场间接影响货物贸易进出口。实证结果可知,GDP、中国货物贸易进出口总额、石油价格与石油消费量存在长期均衡关系。根据误差修正模型发现中国货物贸易出口会对自身产生短期的正面影响。当石油价格上涨时,货物贸易出口先是在短期内下降,之后再上升。石油消费量冲击会对中国货物贸易出口造成负效应,但其影响仅持续短期。石油的消费意愿(需求价格弹性)短期内不会对中国货物贸易出口产生影响。

About 57% of transportation energy in the world today is driven by petroleum products. Funda-mentally speaking, oil demand depends on the vitality of the global economy, especially the expan-sion of developing economies. Strong economic growth in emerging economies will cause a surge in oil demand. On the one hand, the price of oil will directly affect trade in goods from the cost of transportation, the cost of enterprise production and the foreign exchange market. On the other hand, oil prices may also indirectly affect the export of goods trade in terms of consumption, in-vestment and labor markets. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP, total export of goods, oil prices and oil consumption. According to the Vector Error Correction Model, it is found that the export of Chinese goods trade will have a short-term positive impact on itself. When the price of oil rises, exports of goods trade first decline in a short period of time and then rise. The impact of oil consumption will have a negative effect on China’s export of goods trade, but its impact will only last for a short time. The willingness to consume oil (price elas-ticity of demand) will not have an impact on China’s trade exports in the short term.