新疆哈密地区近55 a降水变化特征的时间序列分析

Time Series Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in Hami in Recent 55 Years

基于哈密地区6个气象站1960~2014年降水观测资料,采用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析的方法,分析了哈密地区降水的变化趋势特征。结果表明:哈密地区年与四季降水量均呈增加趋势,其气候倾向率全年为3.7mm?(10a)?1、冬季为0.4mm?(10a)?1、春季、夏季为1.1mm?(10a)?1、秋季为1.2mm?(10a)?1,冬季对降水增加贡献最小,秋季对降水增加贡献最大。哈密地区全年的降水增加,主要体现在春、秋季和夏季降水量的增加。年降水量存在16 a左右的振荡周期。年降水量在60年代前期呈减少趋势,60年代后期之后增加趋势明显,在1976年左右发生了突变。

Based on the observation data of precipitation from 6 meteorological stations in Hami during 1960-2014, the temporal variation characteristics of precipitation in Hami were analyzed by using the method of simple linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results indicated that: the annual and four seasonal precipitation all showed an increasing trend in Hami, while the yearly climate tendency rate was 3.7 mm?(10a)?1, and 1.1 mm?(10a)?1 in spring, 1.1 mm?(10a)?1 in summer, 1.2 mm?(10a)?1 in autumn and 0.4 mm?(10a)?1 in winter, respectively. The minimum increase of precipitation was in winter, while the maximum in autumn. The annual precipitation of Hami increased mostly in spring, autumn and summer. The annual precipitation possessed the oscillation period of 16 a. It decreased in early 1960’s, while obviously increased at the end of 1960’s. The abrupt change occurred in around 1976.