ECMWF数值预报产品对伊犁地区寒潮天气过程的预报能力检验

Forecasting Capability Test of Cold Wave Process by ECMWF Numerical Weather Prediction Products in Yili Region

本文利用伊犁地区常规观测资料、Micaps资料、ECMWF数值预报产品以及ECMWF-thin数值预报产品对春秋冬季三次寒潮天气进行检验和分析,结果得出:三次寒潮天气过程都是前期维持较高气温或者升温迅速,降温幅度明显;三次寒潮天气的主导系统都为欧洲高压脊;ECMWF数值模式对寒潮系统的主导系统及影响系统的发展及移动都有较好的预报能力;对于模式850hPa温度预报均比较稳定,而且预报时效越短,稳定性体现的越明显;EC数值模式的降水预报对于低涡类影响系统的降水预报效果较好。

In this paper, using the Yili region conventional observation data, MICAPS data, numerical forecast products and ECMWF and ECMWF—thin numerical forecast products for three times in the spring and autumn period and the winter cold weather for inspection and analysis, the results concluded that cold weather process for the third time is early to maintain high temperature or heat up quickly, cool is larger. Cold weather leading system is three times of the ridge;ECMWF numerical model of leading system of cold wave system influences the development of the system and has good prediction ability to move. For the 850 hPa temperature, prediction models are relatively stable, and forecast the shorter the time;the stability is more obvious;EC numerical model of precipitation forecasts for low vortex effect system of precipitation forecast effect is better.