摘要
2016年5月14~15日西风槽和西南暖湿气流配合,山东自西向东出现一次全省性降水天气过程。针对此次过程,利用多家模式(ECMWF、GRAPES、MM5)预报产品、雷达产品等资料对人工增雨作业条件、作业时间及作业部位的选择、作业实时监测等方面进行了研究分析。通过模式产品和观测资料分析发现,EC模式、GRAPES模式和MM5模式对本次降水过程进入山东的时间方面,预报均存在偏晚的现象,但对作业潜力区的识别方面预报较为准确,因而模式预报产品有利于对整个降水过程提前做好了解和把握。结合雷达产品实时监测分析,能够为作业时段和作业区域的选择做出较好的订正分析。模式预报产品与雷达等多种观测资料融合,能够为合理地选择人工增雨的作业时段和作业部位提供有价值的参考。
From 14 to 15 May 2016,a whole provincial precipitation that was influenced by westerly trough and southwest warm and humid airflow occurred in Shandong from west to east.In view of this process,the data of the forecast products of several modes(ECMWF,GRAPES,MM5)and radar products were used to study and analyze the conditions of artificial precipitation operation,the time of operation,the selection of operation location,and the real-time monitoring of the operation.Through the analysis of model products and observation data,the EC model,the GRAPES model and the MM5 model had a late forecast for the precipitation process entering Shandong,but the identification of potential area was more accurate.Therefore,the model prediction product was conducive to understand and grasp the whole precipitation process ahead of time.Radar products can make better corrections for the selection of operation period and operation area.The fusion of model prediction products and radar data can provide valuable reference for reasonable selection of operation periods and operation parts of artificial precipitation.
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2019年第5期581-586,共6页
Climate Change Research Letters
