贵阳市暴雨短期预报方法研究

Study on the Short-Term Forecast Method of Rainstorm in Guiyang

通过对1991年至2014年24年,贵阳市区出现的68次暴雨天气,利用常规探测资料、NCEP 1? ×1?资料进行分析,确定出贵阳市暴雨天气系统影响的关键区,综合分析发现500 hPa高空槽、850 hPa切变、地面锋面或辐合线、低空急流、副热带高压和台风减弱低压是造成贵阳市暴雨的主要天气系统。根据每次过程主要影响天气系统的相互配置对贵阳市暴雨过程进行综合分型,并通过对贵阳市本站暴雨日当天14 h的地面温度T、本站气压P、露点温度Td及经过计算的水汽压E进行分析统计,根据1991年~2009年55次暴雨个例,统计出出现暴雨天气的6种单站要素变化型式,得出贵阳市区暴雨短期预报方法。

Based on the data of 68 rainstorms in Guiyang city from 1991 to 2014, using the conventional detection data and NCEP based on the analysis of 1? ×1? data, the key areas affected by the rainstorm weather system in Guiyang city are determined. It is found that the main weather system of Rain-storm in Guiyang city is 500 hPa high trough, 850 hPa shear, surface front or convergence line, low level jet stream, subtropical high and typhoon weakened low pressure. According to the mutual configuration of each process which mainly affects the weather system, the rainstorm process in Guiyang city is comprehensively classified. Based on the analysis and statistics of the ground tem-perature T, the pressure P, the dew point temperature Td and the calculated vapor pressure E of 14 hours on the day of Rainstorm in Guiyang City, and according to 55 rainstorm cases in 1991 - 2009, 6 kinds of single station element change patterns of rainstorm weather are calculated, the short-term forecast method of Rainstorm in Guiyang city is obtained.