西南地区主要农业气象灾害时空变化特征及趋势分析

Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Main Agrometeorological Disaster in Southwestern China

为了研究气象灾害对农业造成的影响,本文选取了西南地区四种主要的农业气象灾害(旱灾、洪涝、风雹和冷冻灾)近40年的受灾面积、成灾面积、直接经济损失、受灾人口等数据,通过对数据进行空间插值以及回归分析等,对西南地区五个省市区的农业气象灾害进行了时空特征和趋势分析。结果表明:1) 西南地区农业气象灾害的受灾率和成灾率具有一致性,且从受灾率和成灾率总体来看,存在旱灾 】洪涝 】风雹 】冰冻。2) 重庆、四川、贵州和云南地区主要的气象灾害是旱灾和洪涝,风雹和冷冻造成的灾害较弱,而西藏的主要气象灾害是冷冻和洪涝,风雹和旱灾次之。3) 多年来,干旱、洪涝和风雹灾害大多分布于四川地区,冷冻灾主要分布并影响云南省,而西藏地区的气象灾害相对较少。4) 四川地区的受灾人口和直接经济损失是最多和最严重的,而西藏的受灾人口和经济损失则是影响最小的。5) 近40年来,旱灾和风雹灾对西南地区的农业损害呈现出较大速率地减弱趋势,其中旱灾下降速率大于风雹,而洪涝和冰冻灾害则呈慢速增加趋势,其中洪涝上升速率大于冷冻灾害。

In order to study the impact of meteorological disasters on agriculture, this paper selected the area of crops covered and affected by natural disasters, direct economic loss, affected population and other data of four major agricultural meteorological disasters (drought, flood, wind and hail, and freezing disaster) in Southwestern China in recent 40 years. Through spatial interpolation and regression analysis, the agricultural meteorological disasters in five provinces and cities in South-western China were analyzed, and the spatio-temporal characteristics and trend analysis were carried out. The results showed that: 1) the disaster rate and hazard rate of agricultural meteorological disasters in Southwestern China were consistent, and the overall disaster rate and hazard rate were drought >flood >wind and hail >freezing disaster. 2) The main meteorological disasters in Chong-qing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan were drought and flood. The disasters caused by wind and hail, and freezing disaster were relatively weak. The main meteorological disasters in Tibet were freez-ing and flood, followed by wind and hail, and drought. 3) For many years, drought, flood, wind and hail disasters were mostly distributed in Sichuan, while freezing disasters mainly affected Yunnan Province, and meteorological disasters in Tibet were relatively few. 4) The disaster-stricken population and direct economic losses in Sichuan were the largest and most serious, while those in Tibet were the least. 5) In the past 40 years, the agricultural damage caused by drought and hail disasters in Southwestern China had been weakened at a relatively high rate. The decline rate of drought disaster was greater than that of wind and hail, while the flood and freezing disasters were increasing slowly, and the rising rate of flood was greater than that of freezing disaster.