1960~2019年塔城地区北部寒潮天气变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Cold Wave Weather in Northern Tacheng Area during 1960~2019

利用新疆塔城地区北部5个气象观测站1960年~2019年逐年、月、日气温资料,从中筛选出符合条件的24 h寒潮、强寒潮、特强寒潮天气频数,运用合成分析、回归分析等方法,研究了塔城地区北部寒潮天气的气候统计特征及变化特征,结果表明:近60a塔城地区北部24 h寒潮频数最多,强寒潮次之,特强寒潮最少;寒潮均以11月出现最多,9月、5月或10月最少;寒潮均以冬季出现最多,秋季次之,春季最少;寒潮基本以1960年代或1970年代出现最多,1980年代、21世纪初年或10年代最少;24 h寒潮频数以0.56次/10a的速率显著减少,托里24 h寒潮、强寒潮频数分别以0.36次/10a、0.08次/10a的速率显著减少,特强寒潮频数以0.01次/10a的速率显著增加;塔城地区北部寒潮天气的发生与三面环山向西开口的喇叭状盆地地形有密切关系。

Based on 5 meteorological observatory temperature data from 1960 to 2019 in northern Tacheng area, Xinjiang, by screening cold wave, strong cold wave and strong cold wave weather in 24 h, using the method of synthetic analysis and regression analysis the climate statistical features and changes of cold wave weather were analyzed, the results show that cold wave frequency was the most, secondly strong cold wave, extreme cold wave was the least in northern Tacheng area nearly 60a. The cold wave occurred most frequently in November and least frequently in September, May or October. The cold wave occurred from most to least was winter, autumn and spring. The most cold waves occurred in the 1960s or 1970s, while the least occurred in the 1980s and 2001~2010. The cold wave frequency was decreasing significantly at a rate of 0.56 times/10a, especially cold wave frequency and strong cold wave frequency were decreasing significantly at a rate of 0.36 times/10a and 0.08 times/10a in Toli, and extreme cold wave frequency was increasing significantly at a rate of 0.01 times/10a. The cold wave weather was closely related to the terrain, such as the trumpet shaped basin opening to the west, surrounded by mountains on three sides.