CINRDA/CA天气雷达OHP检验分析

OHP Test and Analysis of CINRDA/CA Weather Radar

本文研究贵州六盘水市多普勒天气雷达1 h降雨量(OHP)在短临灾害性暴雨预报中的应用,从雷达站周边雨量站选取2018年~2020年降水个例共计3157对数据对比分析。以其空报率、漏报率分析其可用性,以平均误差、相对误差和均方根误差进行误差分析。结果表明:1) 六盘水雷达OHP漏报为52%、空报率34%、准确预报临界指数57%,漏报率、空报率随降水强度增加而降低,准确预报临界指数也随之增加。2) OHP误差较大,均方根误差在1.36~18.47之间,误差值随降雨量增加而加大,3) 在≤2.5 mm时,OHP会多估测,】2.5 mm时,OHP为低估测,并随实测降雨量增加估测误差越大。4) 雨量站距离对OHP误差有一定的影响,距离越远误差相对偏大。需加强对六盘水雷达OHP应用研究和修订,提升本地天气雷达产品能更好在短时灾害性天气中的应用。

This paper studies the application of Doppler weather radar 1 h rainfall (OHP) in the forecast of short-term and impending disastrous rainstorm in Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province. A total of 3157 pairs of precipitation cases from 2018 to 2020 are selected from the rainfall stations around the radar station. Its availability was analyzed by its false alarm rate and false alarm rate, and its error was analyzed by average error, relative error and root mean square error. The results show that: 1) the missing report rate of OHP of Liupanshui radar is 52%, the false alarm rate is 34%, and the critical index of accurate forecast is 57%. The missing report rate and empty report rate decrease with the increase of precipitation intensity, and the critical index of accurate forecast also increases. 2) The error of OHP is larger, the root mean square error is 1.36~18.47, and the error increases with the increase of rainfall. 3) When ≤2.5 mm, OHP will estimate more, and when >2.5 mm, OHP is underestimated, and the estimation error increases with the increase of measured rainfall. 4) The distance of the rainfall station has a certain influence on the OHP error, and the farther the distance is, the larger the error is. It is necessary to strengthen the application research and revision of Liupanshui radar OHP to improve the application of local weather radar products in short-term severe weather.