1981~2020年菏泽市气温时空变化分析

Spatiotemporal Variation of Air Temperature in Heze City during 1981~2020

基于菏泽市八县一区9个气象站点(鄄城、郓城、菏泽、东明、定陶、巨野、曹县、成武、单县) 1991~2020年的逐月平均气温、平均日最低气温、平均日最高气温观测资料,采用线性回归模型、气候倾向率等方法,利用ArcGIS10.6空间分析工具,分析了近30年菏泽市月平均气温、月平均日最低气温、月平均日最高气温的时空变化趋势。研究结果表明:(1) 菏泽市年平均气温、年平均日最低气温、年平均日最高气温均呈上升趋势,年平均日最低气温增长趋势最明显;(2) 菏泽市月平均气温、月平均日最低气温、月平均日最高气温增长趋势具有明显的空间差异;(3) 月平均气温和月平均日最低气温增长率成武最高,鄄城、郓城、东明次之;月平均日最高气温增长率菏泽最高,郓城、单县、成武次之;月平均气温、月平均日最低气温、月平均日最高气温增长率最低均为曹县。

Based on the eight counties area of Heze city nine meteorological site (Juancheng, Yuncheng, Heze, Dongming, Dingtao, Juye, Caoxian, Chengwu, Shanxian) in 1991~2020 monthly average temperature, average daily minimum temperature, average daily highest temperature observation data, the methods of linear regression model, the climate trend rate, using ArcGIS10.6 spatial analysis tools, analysis for nearly 30 years Heze monthly mean temperature, monthly average daily minimum temperature, monthly average daily highest temperature change trend of space and time. The results showed that: (1) The annual average temperature, the annual average daily minimum temperature and the annual average daily maximum temperature in Heze all showed an increasing trend, and the increasing trend of the annual average daily minimum temperature was the most obvious;(2) The monthly average temperature, monthly average daily minimum temperature and monthly average daily maximum temperature in Heze had obvious spatial differences. (3) The monthly average temperature and monthly average daily minimum temperature in Chengwu had the highest growth rates, while the Juancheng, Yuncheng and Dongming followed. The monthly average daily maximum temperature growth rate was the highest in Heze, Yuncheng, Shanxian and Chengwu. The monthly average temperature, monthly average daily minimum temperature and monthly average daily maximum temperature had the lowest growth rate in Caoxian.