摘要
极端降水是引发我国电网洪涝危险性的主要因子。本研究基于1980~2020年全国2419个基准气象站的日降水资料,选取降水强度、暴雨日数、强降水量和极强降水量这4个极端降水指数作为电网洪涝危险性的指标,通过计算分析国家电网东北、西北、华北、华东、华中和西南6个区的历史气候态、区域平均序列和站点线性趋势,综合考察国家电网不同分区的洪涝危险性在研究期的分布和变化。结果表明,电网南方3区的洪涝危险性远大于北方3区,其中以华东区的极端降水气候值最高,变化最显著,面临的危险性最大;华中区次之,华北区和东北辽东地区的危险性也有一定程度的增长,京津冀和川渝城市群则总体有所降低;此外,部分气候干旱区的洪涝危险性也有显著增大,需要在未来的建设和防汛中给予足够的重视。
The extreme precipitation is the main factor in leading to flood hazard on State Grid. Based on the daily observed precipitation from 2419 national benchmark stations, this study investigated the rainfall-flood hazard of State Grid by introducing 4 extreme precipitation indices including rain-storm days, precipitation intensity, strong precipitation amount and extreme precipitation amount as the indicators. Then the distribution and trend of rainfall-flood hazard over State Grid’s 6 divisions were analyzed by calculating the climatology patterns, regional average series and stational trends. The results show the larger rainfall-flood hazard in South than in North, and the East_China is facing the most serious hazard both in distribution and trend. There are also significant increased trends in Central_China, North_China and east part of Northeast_China. Urban agglomerations in Jing-Jin-Ji of North_China and Chengdu-Chongqing of Southwest_China show deceased trends in the local scale. Moreover, the significant increased trends in historical arid regions (e.g. North-west_China) need more attention in future operational construction and flood control due to the potential hazard and risks.
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2022年第1期32-40,共9页
Climate Change Research Letters
