摘要
本文利用2010~2020年28个自动气象站的降水资料,对浙江省桐庐县的暴雨时空分布特征进行了分析,得出桐庐县梅汛期暴雨日的年际分布不均匀,梅汛期期间降水有一个大值区在早晨到上午前后(5:00~11:00)。桐庐县雨量还具有明显的空间分布特征,这和桐庐的地形有关,大值区集中在桐庐的西南部乡镇以及东部乡镇,西北部乡镇暴雨强度最低。除此以外,本文利用NCEP再分析资料和micaps资料对2010年~2020年梅汛期前后大尺度环流背景进行了统计分析、并整理归纳了分型,统计中低层的水汽通量,提炼出基于不同分型的梅汛期暴雨预报指标。结果表明,梅汛期天气形势分为4类:低槽东移类,低涡切变类,台风类,雷暴类,其中低涡切变和雷暴型是影响桐庐县最多的。中低层水汽通量和平均天气形势图密切相关,系统的位置、急流的大小决定水汽的来源和大小。
This paper uses the precipitation data of 28 automatic weather stations from 2010 to 2020, to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of heavy rain in Tonglu County, Zhejiang Province. It is concluded that the inter-annual distribution of rainstorm days during the plum flood season in Tonglu County is uneven, and there is a large value area of precipitation during the plum flood season from morning to morning (5:00~11:00). The rainfall in Tonglu County also has obvious spatial distribution characteristics, which is related to the topography of Tonglu. The large-value areas are concentrated in the southwestern and eastern towns of Tonglu, and the townships in the northwest have the lowest rainstorm intensity. In addition, this paper uses the NCEP reanalysis data and micaps data to statistically analyze the large-scale circulation background before and after the Meiyu period from 2010 to 2020, and organizes and summarizes the classification. Calculate the water vapor flux in the middle and lower layers, and extract the rainstorm forecast indicators based on different classifications. The results show that the weather situation during the Meiyu period is divided into four categories: eastward-moving low trough, low eddy shear, typhoon, and thunder-storm, among which low eddy shear and thunderstorm affect Tonglu County the most. The water vapor flux in the middle and lower layers is closely related to the average weather map. The location of the system and the size of the jet stream determine the source and size of the water vapor.
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2022年第2期189-203,共15页
Climate Change Research Letters
