1981~2021年老挝气温时空变化特征

Characteristics of Spatio-Temporal Variation of Temperature in Laos from 1981 to 2021

本文基于1981~2021年的CRU全球气温数据,通过运用ArcGIS10软件,截取1981~2021年老挝气温数据,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall趋势性检验和Mann-Kendall突变检验分析方法,分析了老挝年平均气温时空变化特征。结果表明:老挝年平均气温变化速率为0.24℃/10a,增温趋势不显著;春季、夏季、秋季、冬季气温变化速率分别为0.16℃/10a、0.10℃/10a、0.26℃/10a和0.26℃/10a,其中春季和夏季气温无明显上升趋势,秋季和冬季均呈显著上升趋势。老挝年平均气温无明显突变性增长趋势;春季和夏季年平均气温分别在2012年和2013年发生突变,但气温突变性增长趋势不显著,秋季和冬季年平均气温分别在2002年和1985年后呈突变性增长趋势。老挝年平均气温空间分布呈现明显的区域性特征,从北部至南部气温以1℃逐渐升高;空间变化上,除上寮部分地区及下寮东南部局部地区全年增温不显著外,其他地区增温显著。

Based on the CRU global temperature data from 1981 to 2021, by using ArcGIS 10 software, the temperature data from 1981 to 2021 in Laos were intercepted, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of annual mean temperature in Laos were analyzed by linear regression, Mann-Kendall trend test and Mann-Kendall catastrophe test. The results show that the annual average temperature change rate of Laos is 0.24˚C/10a, and the warming trend is not significant. The temperature change rates in spring, summer, autumn and winter are 0.16˚C/10a, 0.10˚C/10a, and 0.26˚C/10a, respectively, among which there is no obvious upward trend in spring and summer, but a significant upward trend in autumn and winter. The annual mean temperature in Laos had no obvious abrupt growth trend, while the annual mean temperature in spring and summer changed abruptly in 2012 and 2013, respectively, but the abrupt growth trend was not significant. The annual mean temperature in autumn and winter showed a sudden growth trend after 2002 and 1985, respectively. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature in Laos shows obvious regional characteristics, and the temperature increases gradually at 1˚C from the north to the south. In terms of spatial variation, the annual temperature increase is not significant in some areas of Shangliao and the southeast of Xialiao. The warming in other areas is significant.